Thursday 22 March 2007
The rolling dice
Bill Lussenheide comments on the shape of COGs to come...
Demographics show that about half of all the brethren will be deceased within 15 to 18 years.
Most of the "iconic" leadership of the COGs, i.e. Meredith,Hulme, Rittenbaugh, Flurry et al will also be deceased.
The iconic groups will be scattered and split apart, as all groups that rely on iconic leadership do when their "guru" dies leaving a power vacuum.
The survivor will be UCG, as it does have in place set succession plans and its leaders, or "the 12," do not necessarily have too much personal draw or persona to matter much if they die or are replaced.
UCG will pick up a good percentage of the remnant parts of the other deceased COGs, however, will probably only be in the 7 to 10 thousand member range and 80% of it will be concentrated in the 20 largest US markets, (equivalent to where there are Major League Baseball franchises.)
Some evidence of this trend can be found in FOT attendance of UCG, which is around 20,000 as opposed to their weekly attendance of around 12,000.
The 7 to 10 thousand UCG attendees 15 to 20 years from now will be basically very senior "senior citizens".
That is how the dice is rolling out for the COGs unless they can come up with a new and cutting edge way to convert the under 40 crowd. Attempts are being made, but results are still yet to be determined and are questionable.